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    Are you staying on a losing trading strategy for too long ?

    One of my good friend , Adwin , wrote this article …

    The United States of America has its fair share of misfortunes in recent years: From the dramatic tragedies of September 11, to the ongoing battles its armed forces had to bear for the past four years since American troops first stepped onto Afghan soil (and subsequently, the invasion, ouster of Saddam Hussein), the US military has, for the first time since its withdrawal from the Vietnam debacle (a serious, major loss of face after two decades of fighting the Vietcong’s army of farmers and peasants), the American public has begun to feel towards the Bush Administration. This was reflected, no less, when the Republicans lost their mid-term elections for the Senate Committee, and as a result, the Republicans have faced formidable opposition with regards to its war policies.

    Indeed, the mounting casualties inflicted on a daily basis on American troops, plus seemingly insurmountable difficulties that American and Allied troops have to face in Iraq, clearly indicates an error of judgment on the Bush Administration’s part. The so-called “war on terror”, which basically translates to eliminating terrorists from Afghanistan and Iraq, both “liberated” from the Taliban and Saddam Hussein respectively, seems to have descended into two major quagmires.

    In lieu of these events, it is perhaps reasonable to ask: Just how does an army wage war, without descending into an all-out guerilla warfare? How does an army profit from wars, without losing more than it can recoup?

    SUN TZU: MILITARY STRATEGIST, WARRING STATES PERIOD

    Sun Tzu, a great Chinese General, was the famous author of “Sun Tzu’s Art of War”. Born in the 6th century BC during a period of turmoil, known as the Warring States Period, Sun Tzu was a distinguished general from the State of Wu.

    Spaced out in 13 chapters, Sun Tzu, depicts, in great detail, the ingredients and conditions necessary for a swift and decision victory in battle. Although the work is more than 2000 yrs old, and having been translated numerous times both by Chinese and European scholars, Sun Tzu’s Art of War is considered a great military classic, having received plenty of attention by generals and leaders alike. From Japan’s General Yamamoto, who was responsible for the surprise attacks on Pearl Harbour, to the indomitable Revolutionary Mao Zedong (later known as Chairman Mao), it seems that the Art of War does provide an insight as to how one wages efficient, decisive battles.

    Perhaps, then, a detailed analysis of this war treatise may give us a hint with regards to the Bush Administration’s failure to forge a solution to both America’s ongoing theatres of war.

    Excerpts from Sun Tzu’s Art of War Chapter 2, Waging War:

    1. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men’s weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.

    Sun Tzu’s logic is simple: Never fight a war that demands an extended period of time. In this case, the American forces stationed in Iraq have often been requested to extend their tours of duty.

    In addition, weaponries and vehicles would have had to take a constant battering, not only through constant usage, but also in terms of sustaining damage from enemy fire. This is a particularly pressing problem for the Humvees, a lightly armoured jeep not meant to withstand heavy fire and explosives.

    2. Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain.

    What Sun Tzu states is obvious: any war, be it a war of attrition or a battle to oust tyrants and despots, is also a war of economics. The reason why the Senate is unwilling to deploy any more troops to Iraq may have more to do with the billions spent in Iraq than having to risk more troops in a country that is close to descending towards anarchy.

    3. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue.

    This may be the reason why the Republicans lost their majority in the Senate to the other “chieftains”, i.e the Democrats.

    4. There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.

    This is perhaps the most distressing and poignant point of all, and a well-proven one. History has shown, more than once, that any war of attrition can never be won by any country.

    From the Russian debacle in Chechnya, to the lost causes of the Vietnam and Korean theatres of war, it is clear that America is no way closer to winning the war in Iraq than it was during her earlier failures.

    5. Thus it may be known that the leader of armies is the arbiter of the people’s fate, the man on whom it depends whether the nation shall be in peace or in peril.

    Perhaps the biggest reason of all, may be that the Bush Administration had absolutely no clear agenda with regards to its own manufactured “war on terror”.

    Sure, fiddling with smart bombs and annihilating enemy troops was easy; in fact, way too easy. There was little doubt whatsoever that Osama’s Al Qaeda and the Taliban had nothing to match the military might of the American armed forces. Neither did Saddam, despite all the scare about WMDs and other dastardly weapons (which, to the chagrin of the Bush Administration, was never found, nor properly addressed).

    The real crux of the issue is that, the Bush Administration never had any real agenda with regards to the occupation of both Iraq and Afghanistan: All planning stopped somewhere between the demolition of the Afghanistan and Iraq armies and the throwing of flowers by the adoring masses at the feet of invading American troops.

    If Sun Tzu’s analysis is right, it may be that America may never win this war on terror. Given the lack of leadership skills and proper agenda, this may end up as another fiasco, alongside America’s greatest military mishaps in world history.

    My Comments :

    Review the above article and see how you could relate this to your trading strategy …





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